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Read previewYoung Americans are feeling increasingly isolated from their offices and classrooms, and these "disconnected youth" — or "opportunity youth" — may be ill-positioned for the future. Loneliness and a tough job market are leaving many Gen Zers feeling stuck, isolated, and unsupported. In fact, they're members of the disconnected youth — defined as Gen Zers who are not in school and not working. Disconnected youth are at risk of long-term stagnationMost Gen Zers — who are between the ages of 12 and 27 — are in this decisive decade. How to help disconnected youthAlthough many disconnected youth struggle with school and work, researchers cautioned against a "one size fits all" solution.
Persons: , Gen Zers, Richard Reeves, Reeves, Zers, aren't, Zers —, Jonathan Zaff, Ian Rowe, Lara Aknin, Zaff, Zer, isn't Organizations: Service, Brookings, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, National Center for Education Statistics, Boston University, American Enterprise Institute, Partnership Locations: North America, Brookings
A growing group of America's young people are not in school, not working, or not looking for work. They're called "disconnected youth" or "opportunity youth," and their ranks have been growing for nearly three decades. Experts say it's not just work and school; this group is often also disconnected from a sense of purpose. Palmer added that those with limited access to transportation, people with disabilities, and young parents were also more susceptible. Disconnected young people don't have that luxury."
Persons: , Destiny, She's, she's, They're, Kristen Lewis, Lewis, hadn't, there's, Sen, Tim Kaine, who's, Joseph, he's, hasn't, he'd, Ashley Palmer, Palmer, Sarah Nunley, Nunley, Veronica, There's, Lucchesi, they're Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Social Science Research Council, Survey, University of Minnesota's, National Center for Education Statistics, Walmart, Texas Christian University, Ivy League Locations: Florida, Alabama, Indiana, Silicon Valley, YOLO, Texas
In particular, the researchers looked at a group dubbed "disconnected youth," who aren't working and are also not in school. As of 2022, disconnected youth comprised 13% of this age group; that share has been rising overall since 1998, according to calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. AdvertisementYounger Americans are facing stagnant incomesThe Dallas Fed found that, even after a post-pandemic dip, the rate of disconnected youth has increased since the end of the 1990s. AdvertisementAnd the number of young adults with no income has been on the rise; in 1990, around one in five young adults said they had no wage or salary income. Are you or were you a "disconnected youth," or supporting one?
Persons: , Louis, Gen, Zers, Louis Fed's, Louis Fed, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers Organizations: Service, Louis Federal Reserve's Institute for Economic Equity, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Louis Fed, National Health, Blacks, Louis, Louis Fed's Institute for Economic Equity
Read previewThe push by US businesses to make more stuff in America has an ongoing challenge: It's hard to find workers. Ulbrich says this stands in sharp contrast to Mexico, whose growing manufacturing base could entice companies to make supply chain investments there, rather than in the US. Even as the pandemic-era labor shortage has eased, the demand for construction and factory workers has continued to exceed supply. Mexico's median age is roughly 30, he added — compared to nearly 40 in China — which has contributed to a strong labor supply. Compared to Mexico, manufacturing in the US would likely offer businesses reduced supply chain disruptions and lower transportation costs.
Persons: , Christian Ulbrich, Ulbrich, Matt Turner, Biden, Houthi, Tesla, Susan Golicic, Andres Abadia, Abadia, Luis Torres, Colorado State's Golicic, Golicic Organizations: Service, Business, Economic, General Motors, Intel, Companies, Ford, Reuters, Colorado State University, US, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: America, Mexico, Ukraine, Taiwan, Canada, China, Asia, shoring, San Antonio, Tennessee, Alabama, Colorado
Yet according to a raft of polls and surveys, most Americans hold a glum view of the economy. Polls consistently show that most Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy. I hear that from my family.”That's particularly true for some of the goods and services that Americans pay for most frequently: Bread, beef and other groceries, apartment rents and utilities. “Partly because the country is more polarized.”Even so, many Americans, like Charles, are still feeling the pain of inflation. Even if it does, the higher pay may come with a time lag.
Persons: they’re, Joe Biden, Lisa Cook, Cook, , Wendy Edelberg, Katherine Charles, Charles, , ” Charles, Maximus, Eileen Cassidy Rivera, ” Rivera, Karen Dynan, George W, Bush, Obama, Edelberg, ” Edelberg, haven't, Brad Hershbein, Anthony Murphy, Murphy, Aparna Jayashankar, ” Hershbein Organizations: WASHINGTON, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, Duke University, , Brookings Institution, Medicare, Affordable, Teamsters, Biden, House, Republicans, University of Michigan's, Harvard, Upjohn Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: U.S, Tampa , Florida, autoworkers,
REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 7 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan on Tuesday said she supported leaving the Fed's policy rate on hold last week to assess if financial conditions are sufficiently tight to bring down inflation, while pointing to recent signs the fight was not yet won. "We're going to continue to need to see tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation to 2% in a timely and sustainable way," Logan said. "I'm going to be looking at the data and I'm going to be looking at financial conditions as we get closer to the following meeting." That view was one main reason the Fed opted to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%-5.50% range last week. "We have seen some retracement in that 10-year yield and financial conditions, and so I'll be watching to see whether that continues and what that means for the implications of policy," Logan said on Tuesday.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Franklin Paul, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S
Many Texas manufacturing businesses are struggling amid economic uncertainty. AdvertisementAdvertisementMany Texas manufacturing businesses are not happy about how the economy is doing. The survey of 94 Texas manufacturers detailed how many Texas manufacturing firms are struggling. Still, the survey's production index, which measures Texas' manufacturing conditions, improved in October, despite a decline in the new orders index. Comments included in the report showed that across manufacturing, businesses are unsure about how to prepare for the future.
Persons: , Raymond James, Larry Adam, Harley Bassman, I'm, there's, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, we've Organizations: Dallas Fed, Service, Texas Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Companies, Bloomberg, Management Locations: Texas, China, U.S, Ukraine
Logan acknowledged progress in lowering inflation while still being unsure that price pressures are ebbing to the Fed's 2% target. She said a still-strong job market may need to weaken further to help the Fed achieve its inflation goals. "My focus is on price stability and what further tightening may be needed to achieve our mandate," Logan said. If tighter financial conditions are "persistent that could mitigate some of the need for further increases," Logan said. In her remarks Logan also took stock of the outlook for the Fed's balance sheet contraction policy.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Jerome Powell, Michael S, Sandra Maler, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, New York University, New, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, New York
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan walks to the opening dinner of the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said on Thursday recent data and market shifts give the central bank space to deliberate on its next monetary policy move. "We have some time" before having to make the call whether to raise rates again or hold them steady, Logan said at a gathering of the Money Marketeers of New York University. Logan noted that a desirable tightening in financial conditions gives officials some space to watch incoming data, as she noted progress in lowering inflation while still being unsure price pressures are ebbing to the 2% target. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Michael S, Sandra Maler Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, New York University, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York
An Aramco employee walks near an oil tank at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled 1% lower on Friday due to macroeconomic concerns and profit taking, but rose about 30% in the quarter as OPEC+ production cuts squeezed global crude supply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down 92 cents to $90.97, up 1% in the week and 29% in the quarter. While the total rig count fell by 51 in the third quarter, the cuts have slowed compared with a reduction of 81 in the second quarter as oil prices have rebounded due to tightening supplies. The supply cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to dominate oil prices for the remainder of this year.
Persons: Ahmed Jadallah, Brent, WTI, John Kilduff, Lael Brainard, Baker Hughes, Suvro Sarkar, Robert Harvey, Katya Golubkova, Sonali Paul, Mark Potter, Paul Simao, Jan Harvey, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, . West Texas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Energy Information Administration, Investors, White, Evergrande, HK, Reuters, Aramco, National Australia Bank, DBS Bank, Thomson Locations: Aramco, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, New York, U.S, Brent, OPEC, Russia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell made it very clear the Fed won't abandon the 2% inflation target: Former Dallas Fed presidentRichard Fisher, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2005 to 2015, says "the question is the speed with which they get there."
Persons: Powell, Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Mexico is now America's top trade partner thanks to US-China tensions and "nearshoring." AdvertisementAdvertisementMexico's infrastructure is not readyBeing a more attractive trade partner to the US is one thing. China is now Mexico's largest trading partner globally, and Mexico is already China's second-largest trade partner in Latin America. China's Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico is still small (about 1% of Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment) but it is its fastest-growing source of outside investment. If Mexico's economy is going to surge, it needs to be more than just a middleman.
Persons: Luis Torres, , Tesla, JULIO CESAR AGUILAR, Xi Jinping, Lintao Zhang, Kearney, Gerardo Esquivel Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of, Foreign, Investment, Bloomberg, Getty, Publishing Locations: Mexico, China, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Nuevo León, Latin America, Yantai, Shandong Province, Mexican, United States
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan walks to the opening dinner of the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. My base case, though, is that there is work left to do," she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Dallas Business Club at Southern Methodist University. "After the unacceptably rapid price increases of the past several years, I’m not yet convinced that we’ve extinguished excess inflation." "Another skip could be appropriate when we meet later this month," Logan said, referring to the Fed's upcoming Sept. 19-20 meeting. "In coming months, further evaluation of the data and outlook could confirm that we need to do more to extinguish inflation."
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, I’m, Logan, Diane Craft Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, U.S, Dallas Business Club, Southern Methodist University, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
The US is importing fewer goods from China, as supply chains shift away from the East Asian country. Goods imported from China into the US made up 14.6% of all imports in the 12 months through July, per a Bloomberg analysis. This is the lowest share of Chinese goods imported to the US since 2006. Mexico's share of goods imported into the US hit a record high of 15% in the 12 months through July, while Vietnam's share was 3.7%, just off a record high reached in 2022, per Bloomberg. At almost 16% share of the total trade, Mexico remained the US' top trading partner in July.
Persons: Donald Trump, It's, that's, Luis Torres, Torres Organizations: East, . Goods, Bloomberg, Service, Goods, Census Department, Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Minth, Binzhou, Piston Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Washington, Beijing, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada, US
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are having a negative impact on the economy. "Interest rates are killing our industry," said an executive from the transportation equipment sector. AdvertisementAdvertisement"High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before... interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates," one survey respondent in the computer and electronic product manufacturing industry said. Finally, a survey respondent from the transportation equipment manufacturing industry had this to say about what the Fed is doing with interest rates: "Interest rates are killing our industry."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson Organizations: Dallas Fed's, Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Locations: Dallas Fed's Texas, Dallas
US imports from China are down this year, and direct investment in China is a sliver of the US GDP. However, William Lee, the Milken Institute's chief economist, told Insider China's economic stumble might not be all bad for the US. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US goods, which may continue to slow, amounted to less than 1% of the US GDP, suggesting a reduction in Chinese imports wouldn't drastically harm the US economy. In addition, China's slowing economy has already chipped away at some American companies' revenues, including DuPont's and Danaher's. AdvertisementAdvertisementThough China's economy has been plagued by a number of crises, including low consumer confidence, many Americans may not have to worry about the downturn hurting their wallets.
Persons: Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, William Lee, Milken, Lee, Paul Krugman, , Luis Torres, it's Organizations: Service, Milken Institute's, US, New York Times, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, United States, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, Vietnam, India, Mexico, Hong Kong, Canada, American
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market has reacted to Powell's comments neutrally, says former Dallas Fed President FisherRichard Fisher, Barclay's senior advisor and former U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the market reaction to Powell's Jackson Hole remarks, Fed Chair Powell's professional expertise, and the economy's strength.
Persons: Fisher Richard Fisher, Barclay's, Powell's Jackson Organizations: Dallas Fed, U.S . Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas
Chinese business owners and consumers told The New York Times they're concerned about the economy. China is dealing with declines in manufacturing and trade as well as record-high youth unemployment. Larry Summers said last week China's economic proespects had been "greatly exaggerated" in the past. Summers said China's economic prospects, previously considered very good, had been "greatly exaggerated," and that he think the US gross domestic product "will exceed China's for another generation." The Times reported consumers and business owners in China were worried because they could not see how the economic downturn would end.
Persons: Larry Summers, proespects, Li Yuan, Richard Li, Summers, Insider's Cork Gaines, Andy Wang, Xi Jinping, Wang Organizations: New York Times, Service, The New York Times, Times, US, Washington Post, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Washington, Mexico, Austria
Mexico overtook Canada as the US' top trading partner at the start of 2023. US trade with China has been edging lower since 2018, except for a spike during the pandemic. Mexico became US' top trading partner at the start of 2023US's trade with major partners as percentage of total US trade. Canada was the US' top trading partner since at least 2000 before being overtaken by China in 2014. "Mexico's expanding manufacturing base has offered an alternative to producing in China," Torres wrote in the note.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, China wasn't, Luis Torres, Torres, Hisense Organizations: Service, Privacy, Census Bureau, East, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Trump, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, China Locations: Mexico, Canada, China, Wall, Silicon, US, Washington, Beijing
Minneapolis CNN —For the first time in more than 12 months, the pace of consumer price hikes accelerated on an annual basis. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% for the year through July, up from June’s 3% annual increase, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% from June and was up 4.7% from the year-ago period. July is the the fourth consecutive month that annual core CPI has eased, and the 4.7% rate landed 0.1 percentage points below consensus expectations. Shelter prices rose 0.4% month on month and were up 7.7% for the year ending in July.
Persons: “ Don’t, , Julia Pollak, Joe Biden, ” Biden, “ We’ve, Kurt Rankin, Dow, , Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Tamara Charm, Brandon Bell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, DiMartino Booth, — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Federal Reserve, PNC, Nasdaq, RSM US, CNN, San, Services, , McKinsey, Quill Intelligence, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: Minneapolis, June’s, San Francisco, Austin , Texas
Income inequality has narrowed in the US, with low-wage workers receiving raises during the pandemic. This trend has been tapering off, though labor market competition has benefited wage growth. This was thanks to pre-pandemic minimum wage legislation, coupled with higher raises for lower wage workers in the tumultuous years that followed. Although low-wage workers have slightly narrowed the gap, corporate profits have boomed, allowing those at the very top to stay separated from the rest. In June 2022, low-wage workers saw 7.2% wage growth from the prior year, falling to 6.5% in June 2023.
Persons: It's, David Autor, Ford, Autor, Harry Holzer, John LaFarge Jr, SJ, Georgetown University's, Holzer, Biden, " Holzer Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, MIT Department of Economics, American Bar Association, Public, Georgetown, Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public, Federal Reserve Bank of, Economic Policy Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Trade between the US and Mexico reached $263 billion during the first four months of this year. That pushed Mexico past China and Canada as the top trade partner since the start of the pandemic. China was the top partner for much of the 2010s and again at the start of the pandemic. Trade with Mexico accounted for 15.4% of all the goods exported and imported by the US, just ahead of America's trade totals with Canada (15.2%) and China (12.0%). Trucks carrying shipping containers line up as they are flagged for a secondary inspections at the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Persons: Luis Torres, Donald Trump's, Torres, Nearshoring, Peter S, Goodman, Michael Burns, Salwan Georges, Shannon O'Neil's, Greg Rosalsky, O'Neil, Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, Janet Yellen, Xi, Yellen Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of, Canada, Dallas Fed, New York Times, Walmart, Murray Hill Group, Trucks, Washington, Getty, NPR Locations: Mexico, China, Canada, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Pacific, Port, Manzanillo, USA, United States
Job gains remain robust, wage growth is still going strong, and unemployment continues to hover near historic lows. That means the job market is still fueling demand in the economy, which the Fed has been trying to slow through rate hikes. Assessing the labor marketThe Fed wants to see the labor market slow down broadly, bringing it into “better balance,” as Powell has frequently described it. And there has been some progress on bringing the job market back into better balance while inflation has come down. “The focus is on the path of wage inflation because of its pass-through to services inflation,” said Sonia Meskin, head of US Macro at BNY Mellon IM.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, , , Lorie Logan, John Williams, Jerome Powell, Powell, Dave Gilbertson, Powell homed, Goolsbee, Gilbertson, Sonia Meskin, Joe Biden’s Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Central Bank Research Association, ” Fed, New, , CNN, Labor, CNBC, BNY Mellon, Commerce Department Locations: Washington, New York, April’s
Friday’s fresh labor market data probably offered little to dissuade them from raising interest rates at their meeting later this month. The June data is the last payrolls report officials will receive before the central bank’s July 25-26 meeting. It underscored many of the labor market themes that have been present for months: While job growth is gradually slowing, wage growth remains abnormally quick and the unemployment rate is very low at 3.6 percent. Investors widely expect the Fed to raise rates at their July meeting, and Friday’s data only reinforced that prediction. But several policymakers have been clear that even as the pace moderates, they still expect to raise interest rates further.
Persons: ” Lorie K, Logan, Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, ” Fed
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